中文摘要：

影响铁路货运量的因素繁多而复杂,每个因素的影响程度都不一样,影响因素的筛选与排序直接决定铁路货运量预测工作的可靠性。灰色关联法是通过数据序列曲线发展态势的相似程度来判断数据序列的联系是否紧密,投影算法是从宏观角度判断两个数据序列的接近程度。结合灰色关联法和投影算法的优点,构造数据序列排序模型,对各影响因素数据序列进行定量分析,为货运量预测的可靠性提供数据基础。实例分析铁路货运量的影响因素的影响力并进行分析排序,为影响因素的定量分析提供新的思路。

英文摘要：

The factors influencing railway freight volume are various and complicated,and the influence degree of each factor is different. The screening and ranking of influencing factors directly determine the reliability of the railway freight volume forecasting work. Gray correlation method is to determine whether the correlation of data sequences is close by the similarity degree of the data sequence curve development trend. The projection algorithm is to determine the closing degree of two data sequences from the macro perspective. Combining the advantages of grey correlation method and projection algorithm,ranking model was constructed to analyze the data sequences of the factors,and the data base for the reliability of freight volume forecasting was provided. Through instance,the influence of railway freight volume＇s influence factors was analyzed and analysis sorting was done,and then a new method was provided for quantitative analysis of the influence factors.