县域是度量经济发展水平的基本单元,区域开发政策的实施效果在县域层面尤为显著。文章通过探索性空间数据分析,展示了1990年~2010年中国县域经济格局在空间上的演变状况。研究发现,在经济总体格局上,中国县域经济发展水平表现出较强的空间自相关,相似地区在空间上集聚分布;热点区域主要集中于长三角、珠三角和环渤海地区;冷点区域集中于西北和西南地区。从热点区域与冷点区域的时空变迁来看,中国县域经济空间格局的自组织性越来越强,空间分异格局中的随机成分不断降低,热点区域范围扩大,并呈现出向北和向西移动的趋势,而冷点区域的范围有所减少。1990年~2010年时段中国县域经济增长的空间格局存在着较明显的变化,增长热点也呈现向北、向西迁移的趋势,增长冷点则向沿海迁移。最后,将中国县域经济格局演化的驱动力归结为3个方面:经济区位、资源禀赋和区域发展政策。
County is the basic unit of economic development measurement, and the implementation effect of regional development poli- cy is especially shown on the county level. Using the ESDA, this paper demonstrates the spatial evolution of economic pattern of China' s county during 1990-2010. The study finds that in the general economic pattern, the development of China' s county economy has a relatively strong spatial autocorrelation with similar regions clustering in space, hot spots centering in the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta and regions round the Bohai Sea, cold spots assembling in northwest and southwest China. From the space-time tran- sition of the hot spots and cold spots, self-organizing ability of the county economy is growing stronger. The random components in space differentiation pattern are becoming less. Hot spots continue to expend, moving from the north to the west, while the range of the cold spots tends to shrink. During 1990-2010, the spatial pattern of China' s county economy growth has notable changes. While the hot spots keep migrating to the north and west areas, the cold spots began to transfer to the coastal regions. Finally, the driving force of evolution of China' s county economic pattern can be summed up in three aspects : geographical location, resource endowment and re- gional economic development policy.