本文选取1961~2013年山东省15个气象站点的日最低气温资料为研究对象,运用线性趋势、MannKendall检验、空间分析等方法,分析山东省极端低温事件时间和空间变化特征.主要结论:(1)过去53年,受地理位置(海洋、地形、纬度等因素)影响,山东省极端低温事件的均温由东至西阶梯状降低,泰山地区为均温最低值区;极端低温事件频数由东南向西北逐渐增加.(2)山东省极端低温事件的均温呈升高趋势,且频数呈减少趋势,说明山东省平均温度具有升高趋势,其中山东省北部(惠民、龙口等地)升温较其他地区显著;1980s极端低温事件均温和频数均发生突变,1980s以后山东省平均温度显著升高,与IPCC报告的结果一致.
The data of daily minimum temperature, observed from 15 stations of Shandong Province during 1961 2013 ,was selected as the subject investigated ,to detect temporal-spatial characteristic of extremely low tem- perature event, with linear trend analysis, Mann-Kendall test, and spatial analysis methods and so on. The results showed that: ( 1 ) Average temperature of extremely low temperature event of Shandong Province de- creased from east to west during last 53 years, and the Taishan area with the lowest average temperature, be- cause of different geographic elements (e. g. the distance from the ocean, elevation and latitude ). The frequency of extremely low temperature event increased from southeast to northwest. (2) Average temperature of extremely low temperature event had raising trend during 1961 - 2013, and the frequency had decreasing trend. It implies that the average temperature of Shandong Province went up. The area of remarkable increasing temperature displayed in the northern part of Shandong Province (e. g. Huimin, Longkou). Abrupt change of average temperature and frequency of extremely low temperature event occurred in 1980s, the temperature was raised more remarkable after 1980s,and the results can be match with the report by IPCC.