中文摘要：

基于SODA再分析资料和TAO资料,利用EOF和统计分析等方法,分别研究了赤道太平洋海面纬向风应力异常和赤道太平洋上层纬向流异常的时空特征及其对西太平洋暖池纬向运移的影响。结果显示,赤道太平洋海面纬向风应力距平场第一模态具有2—5年的年际变化特征,其时空分布呈东、西向的反位相变化;而赤道太平洋上层纬向流距平场的第一模态则为1—2年的年和年际变化,且整个研究区域位相统一。纬向风应力和纬向流异常变化最显著的区域都在赤道中太平洋。相关分析显示,赤道中太平洋海面纬向风应力异常和赤道西太平洋上层纬向流异常分别对西太平洋暖池纬向运移有约2个月和4—6个月的超前影响,是暖池纬向运移的两个重要动力因素。回归分析表明,赤道中太平洋海面纬向风应力异常和赤道西太平洋上层纬向流异常对西太平洋暖池纬向运移有很好的预报意义。

英文摘要：

With SODA reanalysis data from 1958 to 2001 using empirical orthogonal function （EOF） and statistical analysis methods,spatial and temporal variations of zonal wind stress anomalies over Equatorial Pacific and zonal current anomalies in upper ocean and their effects on the zonal displacement of Western Pacific Warm Pool （WPWP） were studied.The results show that the first mode of zonal wind stress anomalies have interannual variation of mainly 2—5 years,and the research region can be divided into the west and the east parts at 120°W line.The first mode of the current anomaly presents annual and interannual variation in simultaneity in the whole region with main periods of 1—2 years.The central equatorial Pacific is the area of the most frequent change in both zonal wind stress and current anomaly.In addition,as major dynamic forces,anomalies in zonal wind stress over central equatorial Pacific and zonal upper-ocean current in western equatorial Pacific are responsible for causing 2 and 4—6 months leading of zonal displacement of the WPWP,respectively.Therefore,the anomalies can be used to predict the WPWP zonal displacement.