中文摘要：

突发事件爆发后通常会持续演化一段时间,识别突发事件连锁反应的演化路径是突发事件应对的关键环节。结合知识元在描述突发事件领域事物知识方面的优势,将共性知识元模型引入到事件演化路径推理中,建立元事件模型和客体模型,利用不同属性间关系获取事件和客体的破坏函数、作用函数、触发函数和影响函数,从而提出一种通过属性和映射关系预测连锁反应演化路径的方法。最后以滑坡事件为例验证了该方法的有效性。

英文摘要：

The emergency event usually evolve for a period after it broke out.Identifying the evolution path of emergency chain reation is the key of emergency response.Considering the advantages of knowledge element in the description of emergency domain knowledge,this paper introduces the common knowledge model into the emergency event evolution path reasoning and build meta event model and object model.With the damage function,action function,trigger function and influence function of different attributes,it proposes a method that using attributes and mapping relation to forecast the evolution path of chain reaction.At last,through the landslide emergency the validity of the method is verified.