中文摘要：

我国是能源消耗大国,其中的电能主要来自火力发电,而电煤资源消耗是煤炭消耗的主要部分。由于突发性自然灾害、季节性需求变动以及价格波动等因素的影响,我国电煤供应在局部地区和局部时段会出现短缺现象,带来重大的经济损失,严重影响了我国能源应用安全。论述了电煤应急储备的内涵和相关理论,利用灰色预测模型对我国电煤需求作出了预测,同时,利用基尼系数法分析了我国煤炭分布不均衡的现象,在深入分析电煤供需现状的基础上,提出了我国建立电煤应急储备的必要性和可行性。

英文摘要：

China is a high-energy consumption country and its power is mainly from the thermal power.So electric coal consumption is a major part of coal consumption.Because of unexpected natural disasters and seasonal changes in demand and price fluctuations and other factors,supply of electric coal will be a shortage in some local area and some special time.That causes heavy economic losses and seriously affects the security of energy applications.This paper discussed the connotation of emergency reserve of electric coal and related theories,forecast the demand of electric coal in China with grey prediction model and analyze the phenomenon of uneven distribution of coal with Gini Coefficient analysis,propose the necessity and feasibility of the establishment of coal in going deep into the foundation of analyzing the present status of coal supply and demand in China.