中文摘要：

为准确评价水电工程项目群供应链风险等级,有效防范风险事故,应用物元法的区间灰色模糊综合评价方法,在系统分析风险因素的基础上,构建了包含5个一级指标和17个二级指标的水电工程项目群供应链风险评价指标体系;并运用ANP确定各指标的全局权重,利用灰色模糊综合评价法求得风险矩阵;引入物元法确定风险矩阵中各元素与各灰类的关联度,得到各指标和整体的风险等级。运用该模型对国内某水电工程项目群供应链风险进行评价,结果表明该水电工程项目群供应链处于中等风险状态,评价结果与后续反馈情况基本一致。

英文摘要：

To accurately assess the risk level of supply chain of hydropower engineering program and effectively prevent accidents,risk factors are systematically analyzed and a risk assessment index system composed of 5 primary indexes and 17 secondary indexes for hydropower engineering program is established through grey fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The overall weighting of each index is identified through ANP,and the risk matrix is worked out through grey fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.The matter- element method is used to identify the relevance between each factor of the matrix and the fuzzy set,and the risk level of each index and the overall program. The model is applied to the risk assessment of the supply chain of a domestic hydropower engineering program. The results show that the supply chain of the program is at medium- level risk,which is in line with the information from the follow- up investigation.