中文摘要：

气象观测数据和地质记录数据显示最近150年气温呈升高趋势.研究了不同时间尺度气候变化与太阳辐射量变化之间的关系.结果表明：太阳辐射量变化是控制地球上气候变化的重要因素.根据地球轨道参数估算出来太阳辐射量变化,现今及未来约1万年太阳辐射量具有逐渐减少趋势,意味着气候逐渐变冷.最近150年气温升高包括人为因素和自然因素,IPCC（Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change）夸大了人类活动导致全球变暖的结果.在万年时间尺度上,最近150年气温升高可以看作是逐渐变冷大背景下的次级波动,气候变暖是短暂的过程.

英文摘要：

A large number of evidence obtained from instrumental and geologic data support the conclusion that temperature has been rising for recent 150 years. By comparing the temporal variations between climate change and insolation variation at different time scales, the results showed that climate change on the earth was controlled by variation of the solar radiation. According to the estimated solar radiation derived from the earth orbit parameters, the insolation would be decreased from present time to the future 10ka years, thus indicating that the climate will shift to cold gradually. In the past 150 years, the temperature rising has been interpreted in two factors, one was human anthropogenic activity and the other is nature forcing. IPCC pointed to the fact that the human activity exerted the dominant influence on recent warming. IPCC overstated the anthropogenic effct on the global warming. Seen from a longer time scale, the recent 150 years warming is transient, which can be considered as a subprime fluctuation under the background of future colder trend.