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中文摘要：
干旱作为一种常见的气象灾害,已经成为制约社会经济发展和农业生产的瓶颈之一。结合考虑土地利用/覆被变化的流域水文模型（WHMLUCC）和作物缺水指标（CWSI）模拟干旱的发展过程,从成因途径提出基于WHMLUCC的非一致性干旱频率计算方法,并以无定河流域为例,推求不同时期（或情景）的干旱频率分布规律,进一步结合干旱等级标准推求不同等级（无旱、轻旱、中旱、重旱、特旱）干旱事件出现的概率,为该流域干旱预测和干旱规划提供科学依据。研究结果表明：1通过作物缺水指标分析可知,过去气候条件下的情景2（过去近期）与情景1（过去远期）相比,CWSI增加了0.045;不同气候条件下情景3（现状时期）与情景2（过去近期）相比,CWSI增加了0.018。2通过干旱频率计算分析可知,同频率、同重现期下,过去远期、过去近期和现状时期的作物缺水指标呈增加趋势,中旱等级以上干旱事件的概率也有所增加,说明无定河农业干旱程度逐渐加重。3通过成因分析发现,无定河流域农业干旱与气候变化和当地水土保持工作密不可分。
英文摘要：
As a usual meteorological disaster,drought has been a restriction factor of social and economic development especially in agriculture. Combined with WHMLUCC model and the simulated drought development through Crop Water Stress Index,this paper proposes the inconsistent frequency calculation method based on WHMLUCC model according to genesis. Taking the Wuding River Basin as an example,this paper inquiries into the drought frequency distribution in different periods under changing environment,and then discusses the probability that different grades（ no drought,mild drought,middle drought,severe drought,especial drought） of drought events happen combined with the standard of drought grades. The results show： ①Through the analysis of the CWSI,the value of the CWSI increase by 0. 045 compared Scenario 2（ in the past short term） with Scenario 1（ in the past long term） under the past climate conditions; the value of the CWSI increase by 0. 018 compared Scenario 3（ in the present term） with Scenario 2（ in the past shor term） under the different climate conditions. ②Through the analysis and calculation of the drought frequency distribution,the CWSI value has an increasing trend in the past long term,the past short term and the present term under the conditions of same frequencies and same return periods. At the same time,the probability of the drought events above middle drought grade also increases. It indicates that agricultural drought is aggravating gradually. ③Through the cause analysis,the agricultural drought is closely connected with the climate change and the soil and water conservation in the Wuding River Basin.
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