中文摘要：

本文基于调查问卷搜集的微观数据，通过多元Logistic模型筛选变量，建立分类回归树模型来分析影响消费者选择模式的因素，旨在探讨适合我国国情的长期护理保险制度运行模式，并从政策实施层面提出建议。研究结果表明：纯粹商业长期护理保险模式目前具有可行性，但推行需要一个过程；社会保险为基础、商业保险为补充的针对就业人群的保险模式在特定阶段有存在的必要性；全民强制社会长期护理保险模式虽然长期来看负担过重，但是最终愿景。

英文摘要：

According to the data collected through a nationwide questionnaire,this paper used Multi-Logistic mod- els to screen factors and analyzed the main factors affecting consumers＇ selection models through the Classification and Regression Trees Model （CART）. The purpose of the paper was to explore on the long-term care operation model compatible with China＇ s situations and made corresponding policy-making suggestions. According to our re- search, a purely commercial long-term care model was feasible but needed some time to implement. A mixed model with social healthcare system as the basis and commercial plan as the supplement was necessary for at certain stage. And the ultimate goal was to establish a mandatory and universal social long-term care model, though it may be very burdensome.