中文摘要：

人口问题是制约区域全面协调可持续发展的重大问题,是影响区域经济社会发展的关键因素。作为我国重要的经济核心区,长三角地区经济和人口快速集聚,近年来出现了中心城市人口过度膨胀、生态环境敏感区受到挤占、后发地区人口集聚动力不足等问题。从长三角地区一体化发展要求出发,合理布局该区域的人口,已经成为该地区迫切需要解决的问题之一。利用统计数据和GIS空间分析方法,采用多种模型对本区人口规模与增长、人口空间分布特征进行分析,在人口预测与适宜性评价的基础上优化和调控长三角地区的人口布局,将研究区域划分为优化增长区、快速增长区、较快增长区、限制增长区等人口增长类型区。

英文摘要：

Being one of the key factors for the regional development,population-related issues have great effects on the region sustainable development.Nowadays,Yangtze River Delta is one of the regions having the rapidest economic growth,the highest total economic output,the most intensive population density,and the greatest development potential.Accompanied with the process of the integration of the regions in Yangtze River Delta,it becomes possible to manage the population in the region level.From the perspective of population distribution in Yangtze River Delta,which areas should promote the population growth,and which areas should control the population growth？It is necessary to consider the regional development potential of the areas,and also to consider the restriction and promotion to the population distribution by the regional fundamental conditions.This paper analyzed the features on the population size,growth trends and distribution of Yangtze River Delta through some models with the statistical data and GIS methods.Then,the paper predicts the population size of the Yangtze River Delta in 2020,and gets the optimized distribution of the population in this region by the Cobb-Douglas model and the method of suitability assessing for the population growth and distribution.The total region is divided into four different types of sub areas,which are Optimized Growth Area,Rapid Growth Area,Growth Area and Limited Growth Area.Optimized Growth Area,consisting of the urban areas of Nanjing,Wuxi,Shanghai,Hangzhou,Ningbo and Suzhou,may maintain the growth trend in recent period,but the growth speed should be slow down step by step,and followed by it,the structure and quality of population should be improved.Rapid growth Area,consisting of the sub urban area of Shanghai,Zhangjiagang,Changshu,Wujiang,Taicang,Jiangyin and the urban area of Nantong,Taizhou,Jiaxing,with more population concentration potential,should have high population growth speed.Growth Areas,consisting of parts of the cities of Nantong,Taizhou and Huzhou,th