中文摘要：

针对引水隧洞施工过程的潜在风险,采用WBS-RBS（Work Breakdown Structure-Risk Breakdown Structure）法对风险因素进行识别与量化,并从风险驱动活动时间不确定的角度出发,运用CSRAM（Correlated Schedule Risk Analysis Model）法,考虑风险因素相关性和活动持续时间相关性,研究风险因素概率分布,进行施工进度风险分析;通过调整风险因素概率边界,对风险因素进行了敏感性分析。研究弥补了现有隧洞工程进度风险分析缺乏对风险因素相关性、活动持续时间相关性和对不同风险因素的风险概率分布等方面研究的不足。工程实例表明,提出的基于CSRAM的引水隧洞施工进度风险分析方法能够分析诸多风险因素综合作用下的完工概率、关键路线等指标,并识别关键风险因素,为隧洞施工进度控制和风险管理提供有效的理论依据。

英文摘要：

This paper presents an analysis on construction schedule risks of diversion tunnels using a correlated schedule risk analysis model（CSRAM） considering correlation between risks and correlation between activities and assuming uncertainty in the duration of the activities that cause the risks. In this model, the risks are identified and qualified and their probability distributions are estimated, using the method of work breakdown structure-risk breakdown structure（WBS-RBS）. And sensitivity of schedule risks is analyzed by changing the bounds of risk factors in probability calculation. The model can overcome the lack of schedule indexes and these correlations and the neglect of risk probability distribution in analysis of schedule risks. Application to practical diversion tunnel construction shows that our method is effective and satisfactory in calculation of completion probability, critical path, and other critical risk factors of the construction projects subjected to various risk factors. Thus this CSRAM-based method would lay a theoretical basis for schedule control and risk management in diversion tunnel construction.