考察了中国水电,核电,天然气发电,风能,光伏发电和生物质能等清洁发电技术减排的企业成本和社会成本.基于2007年投入产出表和成本数据,按不同技术对中国电力工业进行投入产出分拆;建立混合可计算一般均衡模型,模拟不同技术的经济影响和减排效果.研究发现,清洁发电技术减排的企业成本和社会成本差异很大;规制者不应只为电力企业设立减排目标,而应引导电力行业采用社会成本较小的清洁能源技术,如水电,生物质能发电,风电,光伏发电;谨慎采取核电,如果仅为减排考虑,应减少天然气发电.
Private and social mitigation costs of the main clean energies for electricity generation in China are assessed here. Inputs and outputs for different technologies are calibrated based on the 2007 Chinese IO table and empirical data. Then, a hybrid CGE model is constructed to simulate the scenarios. The conclusion is that, instead of simply set emission targets for power companies, the regulator should induce them to adopt those technologies with lower social costs, such as hydro, bioenergy, wind, solar PV, be cautious about nuclear power plants, and avoid to use gas turbines for carbon reduction.