鉴于2008/2009年2月云南出现的异常低温冷害/高温干旱的气候事件,用1961—2009年云南2月气温资料进行年代际分析,对2月气温进行异常指数计算,并对影响云南2月的大气环流及海温等影响因子进行分析,探讨发生此类灾害的成因。结果表明,近50年云南2月气温呈线性上升趋势,2月平均气温近10年来处在高温背景下,2008年为异常偏低,2009年为异常偏高。2008(2009)年2月云南低(高)温是在太平洋赤道海温偏冷(稍暖)、冬季风偏强(弱)、中高纬经向环流较强(弱)的大背景下发生的。同时,2008年2月对流层低层在蒙古高压前部的冷空气源源不断向南输送,使得云南东部地区冷空气持续时间长,形成强低温阴雨天气;2009年2月反之,蒙古地区高度场较常年明显偏低,冷空气活动偏弱,使得云南高温干旱突出。
Severe chilling in Feb.2008 and significant warming in Feb.2009 over Yunnan Province are examined considering the decadal variability of climate.Factors of atmospheric circulation which are responsible for the formation of temperature abnormalities of these two months are investigated.Results show that Feb.air temperature in Yunnan is rising up linearly in the recent 50 years.In this case,the Feb.air temperature was abnormally low in 2008 but abnormally high in 2009.The abnormally low(high) temperature in Feb.2008(2009) was generally caused by cooler(warmer) sea surface temperature on the Equatorial Pacific ocean,stronger(weaker) winter monsoon,and stronger(weaker) meridional circulation in the middle-high latitude.In addition,the cold air in the front of Mongolia high was continually transported to the south and stayed chronically in eastern Yunnan province,as led to the strong low-temperature and rainy weather in Feb.2008.,but opposite in Feb.2009.