中文摘要：

中国经济高速增长的一个重要原因就是对外贸易的不断拉动,但在贸易规模不断扩大的同时,碳排放总量也在迅速增长.本文根据中国1996-2010年的分行业面板数据,测算了27个制造业的碳排放量,并根据碳排放强度将制造业分为低碳制造业和高碳制造业,对其碳排放趋势进行了分行业研究,在此基础上,利用FGLS回归方法验证制造业碳排放EKC的存在性并在模型中加入一些控制变量对结果进行检验,然后在回归方程中加入贸易和工业增加值的交互项考察碳泄漏问题.所得结论如下：整个制造业和低碳制造业无论是人均碳排放还是总的碳排放均符合EKC曲线,而高碳制造业却存在着线性关系;贸易减少了整个制造业和低碳制造业的碳排放,但却增加了高碳制造业的碳排放,总体来说贸易量的增加对于制造业人均碳排放量和总碳排量的影响是有利的;在碳泄漏问题上,制造业和低碳制造业不存在碳泄漏的问题,而高碳制造业则相反,但整体上“污染避难所”假说这一结论在我国不成立,对外贸易对中国制造业碳排放的总体影响是有利的,中国不需要因为减少CO2排放而去限制制造业的对外贸易.但是制造业未来仍将是中国经济增长的主要动力.因此,我国应制定有效的低碳政策,引进先进技术,并加大对低碳技术的研发投入,对原有的旧设备进行升级和改造,改变落后的生产方式.针对制造业中高碳制造业的高排放强度,我国应努力做大产业规模,提高能源的利用率和研发资金投入,加快技术进步,达到减排的效果.

英文摘要：

Foreign trade drives China＇s growth,but as the trade scale continues to expand,the carbon emissions also increase quickly.Based on the industry panel data from the year of 1996 to 2010,this paper calculates the carbon emissions of the 27 manufacturing industries.According to the intensity of carbon emissions,this paper divides the manufacturing sectors into low-carbon and high-carbon manufacturing industry and then analyses the carbon emissions trends.Next the paper uses the FGLS regression to verify the existence of EKC of the manufacturing industry＇ s carbon,and investigates the carbon leakage problem by adding the multiplicative term of trade with the value added to the regression.Our findings are as follows：the carbon emissions of the whole manufacturing industry and lowcarbon manufacturing industry accord with the EKC curve,but a linear relationship to the high-carbon industry; trade reduces the carbon emissions of the manufacturing industry and low-carbon manufacturing industry,but it increased the carbon emissions of the high-carbon manufacturing industry; for the manufacturing industry and low-carbon manufacturing industry,there is no carbon leakage,but the high manufacturing carbon industry exists.On the whole,Pollution Haven Hypothesis does not hold up in China,and China does not need to limit industry foreign trade to reduce the emission of CO2.But in the future the manufacturing industry will still be the main engine of the economic growth,therefore,China should make effective low-carbon policy,introduce advanced technology,increase R ＆ D investment to low-carbon technologies and upgrade and transform the original equipment to change the backward mode of production.In view of the high-carbon intensity carbon in high-carbon manufacturing industry,China should strive to expand the industrial scale,improve the utilization ratio of energy,enlarge the fund of research and development and accelerate technological progress to achieve the emission reduction.