中文摘要：

以我国煤矿安全生产形势预测为研究目的，介绍了灰色系统理论GM（1，1）模型、残差GM（1，1）模型和等维新息GM（1，1）模型群等预测模型,应用这3种模型对我国2000年至2009年的煤矿安全生产事故死亡人数和百万吨死亡率分别进行了数据拟舍．通过后验差检验和误差分析，等维新息GM（1，1）模型群对煤矿安全生产事故死亡人数和百万吨死亡率具有较高的数据拟合精度，平均相对误差分别为2．86％和2．92％．应用等维新息GM（1，1）模型群对我国煤矿安全生产事故死亡人数和百万吨死亡率进行预测．结果表明：煤矿安全生产形势将持续保持好转态势；煤矿安全生产事故死亡人数以平均每年16．9％的速度下降到2015年将下降到900人以下：百万吨死亡率以平均每年22．7％的速度下降剖2015年将下降到0．2以下：同时反映了未来煤炭产量将继续保持增长趋势．

英文摘要：

To predict the safety production situation of coal mine in China, the GM（1,1） model, Residual GM（1,1） model and equal- dimension metabolism GM（1,1）model group were established. Based on the three models, the deaths and the mortality rate of million tons of coal mine from 1999 to 2009 were fitted. Through the posterior-variance-test and the relative-error-test, the equal-dimension metabolism GM（1,1） model group was the high precision model, the mean relative error of deaths is 2.86% and the mean relative of mortality of million tons is 2.92%. The deaths and the mortality rate of million tons of coal mine in recent year were predicted by equal-dimension metabolism GM（1,1） model group, the result shows that： the death is 16.9% decreased year by year, and it will be drop to below 900 in 2015; the mortality rate of million tons is 22.7% decreased year by year, and it will be less than 0.2 in 2015; it also reflects that the coal production will continue to increase in recent years.