中文摘要：

基于马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛法对独立风光柴储微网的运行风险水平进行了评估。基于马尔可夫状态概率转移矩阵建立了风电和光伏的发电可靠性模型,该模型综合考虑了风光资源变化的随机性和连续性,以及温度对光伏出力的影响。在此基础上,根据微网运行策略确立储能和柴油机的出力。通过风险评估指标体系,采用马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛法评估微网的运行风险。算例以欧洲典型微网为例,验证了马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛法的正确性和有效性,并从马尔可夫链状态数、风/光容量配比、发电/负荷比3个方面评估了对微网运行风险的影响,算例结果可为微网系统的规划、设计和运行提供参考。

英文摘要：

This paper presents a Markov Chain Monte Carlo（MCMC） method assessing operation risk of islanded wind-PV-diesel-storage microgrid. Reliability models based on Markov state probability transition matrix are established for wind and PV powers. The models also take randomness and continuity of wind and PV resource and temperature influence on PV output into consideration. Then, output of storage and diesel are determined according to microgrid operation strategy. Finally, microgrid operation risk is assessed with MCMC method with a set of risk assessment index system. Extensive simulations are carried out on a European benchmark microgrid. Microgrid operation risk is assessed form three aspects, i.e. Markov chain state number, wind/PV capacity ratio and power generation/load capacity ratio. Case study results verify effectiveness of the proposed method, providing reference for planning, designing and operating of microgrid.