跨期选择指人们对发生在不同时间点的价值做出的权衡与决策。大量研究证明,跨期选择中人们存在普遍的时间折扣倾向,即将未来的价值折扣后与当前价值进行权衡。跨期选择研究不仅与人类心智的起源与机制等基础科学问题密切相关,也关系到国家公共政策的制定等现实问题。本项目拟采用实验室研究和大规模问卷调查结合的方法,深入探索跨期选择的本质。一方面,采用实验室研究法探讨影响跨期选择的重要因素,以探索:(1)跨期选择的效价及其与价值数量、延迟时间的交互作用及其心理机制;(2)跨期选择中是否存在领域特异性及其心理机制;另一方面,通过全国范围的调查,从而:(1)建立中国城镇居民时间折扣率的常模;(2)测量不同类型人群的时间折扣率,以探讨跨期选择的性质与内涵。项目研究结果将有利于加深学界对跨期选择现象的理解。
Intertemporal choice refers to decisions involving tradeoffs among costs and benefits occurring at different times. A great amount of researches have proved that, in intertemporal choice, people generally discount the later or future values, which is called time discounting, and then make tradeoffs between these vales and sooner values. Researches on this area are closely related to not only the basic scientific questions of the origins and mechanism of human mind, but also the formulation of national public policy. Utilizing methods of experimental research and large-sample survey, this proposal will explore the nature of intertemporal choice. First, using experimental researches, we will probe into the significant factors of intertempral choice. The results will (1) highlight the interactions between the valence, magnitude and delay time of intertemporal choice; (2) test whether the domain-specific effect do exist in intertemporal choice, and then explore their psychological mechanisms. Second, we will establish national norms of discounting rates for Chinese urban residents and measure the rates of different classes and types of China urban residents by a nationwide survey. These results will further our understanding of intertemporal choice.