金川14行风井直接关系到矿山的安全生产。本文建立了3种单一预测模型,并根据最优加权组合原理得到了最优加权组合预测模型。最优加权组合预测模型包含了单一模型的有效信息,提高了变形的预测精度。最优加权组合预测模型的模型精度与权重分配与单一模型的选取有关。作为一种短期预测模型,得出金川14行风井在近两个半年会保持稳态变形,不会出现大的突变。
No.14 shaft is the key to the Jinchuan mine safety production.Three single prediction models were developed,a combined prediction model with optimum weight for No.14 shaft which contains effective informations of single model was built based on the optimal combined theory and prediction precision were improved accordingly.The precision and weight distribution are related to the selection of single model.As a short-term prediction model,the result shows that stable deformation instead of saltation will occur in the next two semesters.