中文摘要：

降雨引发的滑坡具有区域性的群发效应,能够在短时间内造成大量的灾难性损失。基于此,提出一种可考虑不同降雨期影响的区域滑坡危险性评价方法。该方法以瞬态降雨入渗的区域斜坡稳定性计算模型为基础,将滑坡危险性定义为在一定持续降雨期内各栅格单元体失稳的概率。通过岩土体物理力学参数的不确定性进行各栅格单元体失稳概率的求解,继而获得区域内滑坡的危险性分布。基于Arc GIS软件开发出区域滑坡危险性动态评价工具。以三峡库区万州主城区为例,详细介绍危险性评价工具的数据处理过程以及参数选取方法,并以2种不同的降雨工况进行比较计算。现场斜坡稳定性的调查与计算结果的对比及统计分析表明：滑坡的危险性分布图与真实滑坡的稳定性情况基本一致,并在一定程度上反应了该地区斜坡稳定性的时空分布特征,测试并验证了评价工具的正确性。

英文摘要：

The landslides induced by the rainfall have the characteristics of regional and multiple occurrence,which can cause great catastrophic losses in a short period of time. Thus,a method considering the effects of different rainfall periods to evaluate the regional landslide hazard was proposed. The grid-based regional slope-stability analysis model was based on the transient rainfall infiltration. The landslide hazard was defined as the probability of the instability of the each grid unit in a period of a certain duration. The uncertainty of the physical and mechanical parameters of rock and soil was used to solve the instability probability of each grid unit. A regional landslide dynamic hazard assessment tool was developed based on the Arc GIS software. Wanzhou central district by Three Gorges Reservoir in Chongqing City was studied as an example using the hazard assessment tool with the comprehensive data processing procedure and parameter selection method. The calculated results under two different rainfall conditions were compared. Comparison and statistical analysis between the site investigation of slope stability and simulation results showed that the landslide hazard distribution was basically the same as the real slope stability status,which partly reflected the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of slope stability in the studied area and tested and verified the validity of the evaluation tool.