中文摘要：

通过对系统内在作用机制的分析，以新疆艾比湖流域为例，利用模糊层次分析原理建立了流域水资源承载力综合评价指标体系并对其进行了量化分析。借助德尔菲专家调查法，将模糊层次分析法运用到研究区水资源承载力综合评价指标权重的求解中，对评价指标、具体评价过程和应用方法进行了分析说明。并预测了研究区未来规划水平年水资源承载力的发展趋势和方向。提出了该区域社会经济发展和水资源配置的规划方向，并探讨提高该区域水资源承载力的良策。这也为其它区域的水资源可持续开发利用研究提供了一定的借鉴和参考。

英文摘要：

With the development of economy, water resources shortage and deterioration of the ecological environment are the major restricted factor for economy development of the Ebinur Lake Basin. On the basis of domestic and international studies on the water resources carrying capacity, the paper introduced fuzzy analysis of un-quantitative decision-making unit system theories into analytic hierarchy process method（AHP） -Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process（ FAHP）, which can avoid the weakness of subjective and difficult in judgment matrix＇s consistency of AHP. Meanwhile,by putting the two methods together,it is no use to calculate complicated total degree of membership using fuzzy identification and optimization models. The main problems of water resources utilization are pointed out by analyzing the water resources and utilization status. The roots of the water crisis in the Ebinur Lake Basin are analyzed, and regulating approaches to alleviate water shortage are put forward. The paper used Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process to study the regional water resources carrying capacity. On the basis of analyzing function mechanism among sub-systems, target variables, decision-making variables and their functions among those variables were given. It takes the Ebinur Lake Basin as an example where frangible environment, serious soil and water loss, and water resource shortage have become a serious obstruction for local economy, society and eco-environment development, the comprehensive evaluation index system of the regional water resources carrying capacity was constructed under the theory of Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process. By means of the Delphi Expert Investigating Process, the paper constructs three hierarchies and 30 appraising indexes by using the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process in solving index weighting of water resources carrying capacity and details the appraising factors, the appraising concrete process and the application method. Then developmental directions of water resources carrying capacity were foreca