中文摘要：

文中利用黑龙江省74个气象站35年（1971-2005年）夏季5-9月平均气温资料,与GIS相耦合,首次对黑龙江省低温冷害进行了县（市）级的时空分布规律分析,并运用灰色分析模型对黑龙江省未来低温冷害的发生情况做了预测。研究结果表明：黑龙江省低温冷害发生次数20世纪70年代为最大,80年代后呈下降趋势;在空间分布上,黑龙江省低温冷害的平均发生频率南方大于北方,严重冷害表现为北方大于南方,一般冷害则表现为中部及西南部地区大于全省其它地区;低温冷害的发生与厄尔尼诺现象有很大的相关性,厄尔尼诺年及其前后年为低温冷害的多发年。2009-2020年黑龙江省大部分地区会发生低温冷害,2020-2030年发生区域和频率有所减少,2030年后发生频率与地区明显减少,未来黑龙江省低温冷害的发生将多集中于北部和中部地区。

英文摘要：

This research analyzed the spatio - temporal distribution of low temperature and cold damage of every county and city in Heilongjiang Province by combing with GIS technology and forecasted the occurrence situation in future by using gray model with 74 meteorological stations 35 years （1971 -2005 ） summer （from May to September） average temperature data. Some research results were as followed： 1970＇displayed the most low temperature and cold damage times, it has been getting weakly from 1980： The spatial distribution of low temperature and cold damage in Heilongjiang Province is that the frequency in south is higher than it in north, the frequency of serious low temperature and cold temperature and cold damage damage is the highest rence of low temperature and cold damage in north is higher than it in south, but the frequency of general low in the middle and southwest region than any other regions; the occurhas good relation with El Nino, low temperature and cold damage mainly happens in the El Nino year and the year before and after the El Nino year. Low temperature and cold damage will be happened in most regions during 2009 -2020, the occurrence region and frequency will be reduced during 2020 - 2030, the occurrence region and frequency will be remarkably reduced after 2030, low temperature and cold damage will be happened in north and middle Heilongjiang Province mostly in future.