中文摘要：

回顾梳理了我国水资源承载力研究的发展历程,将其分成＂概念提出、初步研究、逐步完善、艰难发展、开创新时代＂5个阶段;在对研究方法对比分析的基础上,把水资源承载力计算方法分为经验公式法、综合评价法、系统分析法3大类,并重点介绍了基于模拟和优化的控制目标反推模型（COIM）方法及应用情况。认为未来几年水资源承载力研究的重点包括：在水资源承载力计算方法选择上,全国层面宜采用经验公式法,更详细的研究宜采用系统分析法;在研究方向上,应构建水资源承载力计算模型和预警系统平台;应着重开展变化环境下水资源动态承载力研究;应与现代治水成果、与寻找＂和谐平衡＂结合。

英文摘要：

The development process of research on the water resources carrying capacity in China is systematically summarized,and it can be divided into five stages： the creation of conception,the preliminary study,the gradual improvement,the difficult development,and the innovation era. On the basis of comparison of research methods,the calculation methods of water resources carrying capacity can be divided into three categories： the empirical formula method,comprehensive evaluation method,and system analysis method. The control objective inversion model（ COIM） based on simulation and optimization and its applications are introduced. It is pointed out that research on the water resources carrying capacity in the future focuses on： using the empirical formula method to calculate the national water resources carrying capacity and system analysis method for detailed calculation; constructing the calculation model of water resources carrying capacity and forewarning system platform; studying the dynamic carrying capacity of water resources under the changing environment; and considering the current achievements of water resources regulation and the balance development of water resources and economic society.