中文摘要：

病毒营销是随着web2．0和社会网络发展起来的一种新型社会化网络营销模式，近年来被许多企业采用。但是，病毒营销的效果到底如何？在一定时间内，究竟会有多少客户被成功营销？本文采用概率统计分析和社会网络分析的方法，对病毒营销的传播效率进行了初步预测研究，试图回答：“假设有某病毒营销网络G（V，E），对于给定的初始营销用户集合S0，经过一段时间t后，平均能影响的用户数ES0．（t）是多少？”作者通过引入影响响应时间，先研究了简单的串联、并联影响传播网络图的传播效率情况，在此基础上研究了一般的社会网络图的病毒营销传播效率，最后用一个实例进行了展示。

英文摘要：

Viral marketing model which is a newly network marketing one with the development of Web2.0 and social network,has been employed by lots of companies in the recent years. However,is it really effective and fruitful and how many clients were successfldly marketed during a fixed period of time？ Probability statistical analysis and social network analysis have been adopted in this essay to make the preliminary research of the propagation speeded of the model and the answer to the question： ＂Given a directed graph G（V, E）, for a initial active set So, what is the number of the average influenced users Es0 （t） after the time t？＂ has been explored. Finally,an example is shown to illustrale proposed method. The research of this essay plays an important role as the reference value in applying the viral marketing model for the companies.