中文摘要：

针对群体性突发事件舆情演化的内在机理及影响因素问题,利用舆情演化理论与基于多智能体的建模仿真方法,建立了舆情演化数学模型以及综合考虑社会环境和异质个体特征的多智能体仿真模型。分析与实验表明,存在有效传播率阈值,大于该阈值时,群体性突发事件的规模会稳定于某一水平;小于该阈值时,群体性突发事件会随着时间的演化而结束。群体性突发事件一旦爆发,初始参与规模越大则越有利于舆情传播,从众心理会促使群体支持促进强度和阻止强度占优的一方。研究结果为群体性突发事件的预防与控制提供了有意义的参考。

英文摘要：

In order to study the mechanism and influence factors of consensus evolution in mass emergency, this paper established the consensus evolution model and multi-agent simulation model which considered the social environment and individual heterogeneity characteristics. Analysis and simulation results show that there is a threshold, when the effective transmission rate is greater than it, the size of mass emergency will be stable in a certain level. Otherwise, the mass emergencies will vanish over time. Once the mass emergency broke out, the greater initial size of participate was more conducive to the spread of consensus, and the conformity would push individuals to support the dominant sides of promotion strength or preventive strength. The study will provide a meaningful reference to the prevention and control of mass emergency.