中文摘要：

笔者根据2000年、2006年和2011年中国健康与营养调查（CHNS）的家户微观面板数据,借助双变量Probit模型,从户主特征、家庭特征、社区特征三个方面对中国农村家庭贫困状况及其动态变化特征进行研究。分析发现,不同贫困线标准下,家户贫困发生率均逐年下降,且随着经历贫困次数的增多,贫困户数目不断减少,相邻年份中仅有部分家庭持续处于贫困状态;同时,家户脱离贫困与陷入贫困的状态同时存在。回归结果表明,户主受教育程度、耕地面积、村庄从事农业生产的劳动力比重、到最近小学的距离、到最近火车站的距离等因素对下一年份家户贫困状态的边际效应影响显著;由于贫困标准不同,其影响程度也有所差异。

英文摘要：

According to the household micro panel data of China Health and Nutrition Survey（ CHNS）,and by using the Probit regression model,this paper analysis the household poverty status and its dynamic characteristics from three aspects of the head of the household,the family and the community. Through the analysis we can found that under the different poverty line,the poverty rate showed a downward trend in this three year. As the number of poor households experiencing poverty continues to decline,only part of the families are still in poverty in the next year. The state of out of poverty and in poverty are existing at the same time. The regression analysis shows that the education level of the householder,arable land area of the family,the village which has a lower proportion of the labor force in agricultural production,and the distance to the latest primary school and railway station etc. have a significant impact on the marginal effect of poverty in the next year. Due to the different standards of poverty,the extent of influence also varies.