中文摘要：

化工区在创造规模效益的同时,也带来了区域性的高风险。化工区事故场景及扩展风险的分析已成为保障化工区安全稳定运行亟需解决的关键问题。基于工业事故风险评估方法,考虑安全屏障的安全功能对风险的削减作用,建立了改进的领结图,并引入经典风险矩阵以实现对装置事故场景的初步构建;在考虑传统的事故概率和严重度的基础上,将区域的脆弱度作为化工区事故扩展风险的重要表征要素,得到化工区事故在区域内所能形成的扩展风险的分布,进一步丰富了区域风险内涵。以某化工装置区为例进行分析,结果表明,该方法可为化工区事故扩展效应的预测及土地使用安全规划提供必要的技术依据。

英文摘要：

The present paper is aimed at introducing the results of our study of the risk-escalation prediction of the industrial fire disasters in the chemistry industrial zone via the ARAMIS methodology（ Accidental Risk Assessment Methodology for the Industrial System）. As is known,the so-called ARAMIS methodology is a new and systematic approach to risk analysis in processing industry firstly proposed in the fifth Framework Program of the European Commission to respond to Seveso II Directive. The entire process of the method can be divided into the following main steps： identifying the main accident hazards（ MIMAH）,identifying the safety barriers and the assessment of their performances,the evaluation of safety management efficiency to the barrier reliability,the method for identifying the reference accident scenarios（ MIRAS）,the assessment and mapping of the risk severity of the reference scenarios as well as the vulnerability of the plant surroundings. Based on the method of ARAMIS,we have established an improved bow-tie diagram while considering the risk reduction effect brought about by the function of the safety barriers to solve the accident probability by analyzing the said bow-tie diagram.While joining the consequence levels of the selection together,we have built up a traditional risk matrix and the major accident scenario on the condition that the risk factors can be made to fall into a high risk zone. In traditional risk assessment,the accident probability and the consequence severity may be the main aspects for determining the characteristic features of the risk. But in the ARAMIS,the region vulnerability can be viewed as the third key aspect for characterizing the escalation risk. Therefore,it can be expected to accomplish the analysis of the escalation distribution of the risk in the chemical industry zone and enrich the connotation of the regional risk. Besides,the method of ARAMIS can also be applied to the escalation risk analysis of the chemical industry installations. Therefore,the result