本文对区域间产业结构相似性的测度方法及我国区域间产业结构相似性变迁趋势与原因进行了简要回顾.选定相关指标,对我国区域间制造业结构相似性趋势给出判断.研究发现,近年来我国区域间制造业结构相似性呈先下降后上升再趋下降的态势,且改进克鲁格曼指数与重合度指数完全一致.实证分析了我国制造业结构相似性的影响因素,结果表明:政府行为对区域间制造业结构相似性具有极为重要的影响;资源禀赋差异、运输成本差异、地方保护力度差异、经济发展水平差异与制造业结构相似性呈负相关;前一期滞后项、政府直接投资差异与制造业结构相似性正相关.基于对区域间结构相似性趋势的判断以及实证分析的结论,提出了相关政策建议.
This paper reviews the measuring method of industrial structure similarity, the changing trajectory and causal analysis of China regional structural similarity in recent years. This research shows that MKI completely coincides with SSI. The industrial structure similarity in China has first decreased, and then increased, at last with a downward trend in recent years, Empirically the paper analyzes the influence factors of manufacturing structural similarity, and the result shows that the government behavior has a great important influence on regional manufacturing structural similarity; Manufacturing structural similarity is negatively related to the following difference of factor between regions : resource, transportation costs, local government protection, level of economic development; Before one period lag, difference between government direct investment have the positive correlation with manufacturing structural similarity. Finally the paper puts forward relevant policy recommendations based on the changing trajectory of structural similarity and the conclusion of empirical analysis.