中文摘要：

当前，油气管道失效概率计算模型包括肯特风险指数法、专家判断法、故障树分析法、安全系数法、数据库分析法、结构可靠性理论等几十种评估方法，其中最常用且最有效的油气管道失效概率计算模型可分为数据库分析模型、故障树分析模型、结构可靠性理论模型三类计算模型。文章综述了三类计算模型及其优缺点、适用条件和应用研究进展。故障树分析法与模糊综合理论和贝叶斯网络理论相结合形成改进的故障树分析法，使其失效结果更加客观合理。结构可靠性理论模型的可靠性求解方法主要是一次二阶矩法、MonteCarlo法。对不同计算模型进行了分析比较，并给出了失效概率计算模型的发展趋势，为以后失效概率计算模型的选取及深入研究提供了有力的借鉴。

英文摘要：

Currently, there are dozens of calculation models of failure probability for oil and gas pipeline, such as Kent risk index method, expert judgment method, fault tree analysis, safety factor method, database analysis, structural reliability theory and so on. Among them, the most commonly used and most effective calculation models for oil and gas pipeline can be divided into three categories： database analysis model, fault tree analysis model and structural reliability theory model. In this paper, these three categories of analysis models and their advantages and disadvantages, applicable conditions and application research progress were reviewed. The fault tree analysis method was combined with fuzzy comprehensive theory and Bayesian networks theory to form improved fault tree analysis so as to make the result more objective and reasonable in forecasting probability of failure. The methods using structural reliability theory model are mainly FOSM and Monte Carlo method. In this paper, different calculation models were analyzed and compared, and also the development of failure probability calculation model research was presented, in which useful reference for the selection and depth study of calculation models of failure probability were provided.