中文摘要：

为深入理解TOPMODEL水文模型产汇流机理和分析模型参数选择对洪水模拟影响,使用全局敏感性分析Sobol’方法对TOPMODEL模型单个参数和参数组合对洪水模拟指标影响进行了定量分析.结果表明：模型各个参数单独作用对纳什效率系数、径流总量相对误差和洪峰相对误差影响较小;土壤饱和传导度、坡面汇流速度和土壤下渗率指数衰减速率单独作用对峰现时差影响显著;土壤下渗率指数衰减速率和下渗滞时组合对纳什效率系数、径流总量相对误差、洪峰相对误差影响最大;土壤下渗率指数衰减速率和土壤饱和传导度组合对峰现时差影响显著.

英文摘要：

For deeply understanding of TOPMODEL hydrological model and influence of TOPMODEL parameter choosing on flood simulation, the global sensitivity analysis methodology, Sobol＇ method, was used to give a quantitive study on the effects of TOPMODEL individual parameter and parameters combination on flood predicting. The results show that all the parameters of TOPMODEL have poor individual influence on Nash efficiency coefficient, relative error of runoff amount and relative error of peak flow; but the effective lateral saturated transmissivity, hillslope routing velocity and form of the exponential decline in conductivity have big individual influence on peak flow time. The two parameters combination influence of exponential decline in conductivity and unsaturated zone time delay has big influence on Nash efficiency coefficient, relative error of runoff amount and relative error of peak flow; the combination effect of exponential decline in conductivity and effective lateral saturated transmissivity has important influence on peak flow time.