本文分析了汇率变动影响投资的理论机理,构建了行业名义有效汇率和省份名义有效汇率指数,运用系统GMM估计方法,研究了汇率水平变化和汇率波动幅度两者分别对行业固定资产投资和省份固定资产投资的影响。研究结论显示:劳动密集型行业因人民币升值而大幅减少投资,而资本密集型行业投资对汇率变动敏感性不强。人民币汇率水平变化对东部地区和西部地区的投资均存在显著影响,而对中部地区的影响十分有限。只有东部地区经济发展水平显著影响投资总量。汇率波动幅度对劳动密集型行业投资没有必然的影响;资本密集型行业受滞后一期汇率波动率的影响较大。只有东部地区投资对汇率波动幅度十分敏感。
This paper studies the impacts of the exchange rate changes on the industrial and inter-provincial fixed asset investment by using system GMM estima- tion. We get the main conclusions as follows: Firstly, investment in labor-inten- sive industries is reduced due to the appreciation of RMB. Secondly, the impacts of the RMB exchange rate changes on the investment of the eastern and western re- gions are significant, and this is limited for the central regions. Thirdly, the ex- change rate volatilities have no effects on labor-intensive industries' investment; capital-intensive industries' investment is affected by the lagged exchange rate vola- tilities. Finally, investment in eastern areas is sensitively affected by exchange rate volatilities, but there are no obvious reactions for central and western regions to the exchange rate volatilities.