中文摘要：

采用杭州市的土地利用变更调查数据，估算杭州生态系统服务价值，并进一步对人均生态系统服务价值进行灰色预测。结果表明：杭州市近20年来土地利用结构变化的主要趋势是耕地和未利用地向建设用地和林地转化；杭州2010年生态系统服务总价值比1990年增加了34．60亿元，变化率为6．09％；人均生态系统服务价值呈现减少的趋势，到2020年将下降到5558．06元。杭州要打造生态幸福之城，就要优化土地利用结构，提高生态系统服务价值。

英文摘要：

Based on the land use change survey data in Hangzhou , this paper estimates ecosystem services value by the evaluation model of ecosystem services value , and then predicts the value of ecosystem services per person by gray model .The results show that during the twenty years , the main trend of land use structure in Hang-zhou is the transition from cultivated land and unused land to construction land and forest land ;and that the total e-cosystem services value of Hangzhou in 2010 is 3.46 billion yuan more than that in 1990, which is increased by 6.09%; and that the ecosystem services per person appears to be decreasing , which may reduce to 5 558.06 yuan in 2020 .The government of Hangzhou should optimize land use structure and improve ecosystem services value to build ecological city of happiness .