中文摘要：

在识别诸多风险因素的基础上，通过深入探讨调水量和调水区当地水资源利用的行为规律与反应机制，以及缺水风险行为和性态，建立了包括供水风险率、供水可靠性、供水恢复性以及事故周期等指标在内的风险评价指标体系，然后应用蒙特卡洛方法，对南水北调西线一期工程各引水枢纽在不同下泄流量方案下的供水风险状况进行了统计和分析。结果表明，各枢纽的风险指标值都很理想，南水北调西线·期工程的供水效率和效益是可以得到保证的。

英文摘要：

Based on identifying many hazard factors of water supply, by analyzing the amount of water diversion, behavior laws and reaction mechanisms of water resources utilization and the characteristics of the hazard of water shortage, a hazard assessment index system is established, in which the index of water supply hazard rate, water supply reliability, water supply resilience and accident recurrence period, and so on, are included. Monte Carlo method is used to analyze the water supply hazard situations under different discharge of water diversion pivot in first phase of the western route of south-to-north wa- ter transfer project obtained by the hazard assessment index system. Concretely, the water-supply hazard is controlled less than 1.60% and corresponding the water-supply reliability is controlled above 98.40%, the water-supply resilience is controlled above 97.02% and the accident recurrence period is controlled over 64.2 a. The resuits show that the values of hazard indicator in every water diversion pivot are within the allowable range. If the water supply is not enough in some year, the water supply will recover in time. The accident recurrence period is very long, and the accident probability is smaller in the period of water-supply. Therefore, the water supply efficiency and benefit of the first phase of the western route of south-to-north water transfer project can be ensured.