中文摘要：

本文运用Markov过程原理,构建了人力资源总量规模与结构预测模型,重点阐述了模型的构建原理及一个完整预测周期的运算过程,并运用该模型对A企业未来10年（2013-2022年）人员总量、年龄和学历结构等指标在给定人力资源规划方案下的变化趋势进行预测,为企业制定相对合理的人力资源规划方案提供详实数据分析和决策参考依据。结果显示,与已有的人力资源预测模型相比,该模型预测精度高,人员规模、年龄结构和学历结构的平均相对误差分别为0.33%、0.79%和1.41%,能够很好地对企业人员总量及人员结构的变化趋势进行预测,使企业人力资源规划工作有的放矢,行之有效。

英文摘要：

By applying Markov process theory, this study developed a personnel scale and structure prediction （PSSP） model. This paper describes the process for establishing the PSSP model, including the application of the Markov process, data requirements and pretreatment, and calculation steps. Moreover, the PSSP model was applied to predict the personnel scale, age structure, and educational background structure from 2013 to 2022 according to given human resource plans of a financial enterprise （Enterprise A） in China. An accuracy analysis shows that the PSSP model was more accurate than models in the previous studies. The average relative errors of the personnel scale, age structure, and educational background structure were 0. 33%, 0. 79%, and 1.41%, respectively. The trends of these three factors were employed to evaluate quantitatively the various human resource plans of Enterprise A. In addition to predicting gross personnel trends, Markov process theory can also be used to predict the internal personnel structure of enterprises adequately. Moreover, the PSSP model could serve as a powerful tool for making rational and credible decisions in human resource planning.