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中文摘要：
由于趋势、周期和随机因素的综合影响,降水时间序列往往呈现复杂波动的非线性特征,而分离三种因素在降水时间序列中的贡献率是目前较难解决的问题,相应的研究对降水变化分析和预测具有重要意义.该文基于数理统计原理、极大熵谱原理和分形原理对扎龙湿地1951-2008年的年降水时间序列进行分析,结果表明：该地区存在2.4a和6.4a的降水短周期;拟合程度比较高的非线性回归模型说明该地降水具有循环波动趋势;盒维数揭示了周期、趋势和随机因素是影响扎龙湿地降水变化的主要因素,其贡献率分别为76.97％、16.78％和6.25％,其中周期是最主要的影响因素.
英文摘要：
The time series such as precipitation are always identified fluctuating and non-linear characteristics because of trend,cycles and random factors.So it＇s difficult to explore the contribution of the three factors to precipitation.But these factors are important when the study relate to precipitation variation and prediction.Based on the principles of maximum entropy spectral,mathematical statistics and fractal theory,this paper analyzed the time series of annual precipitation in Zhalong wetland from 1951 to 2008.The results showed that there were two short precipitation cycles of 2.4 a and 6.4 a.A high accurate non-linear regression model is established after transformation and it reveals the oscillatory trend of precipitation in this area.Based on box dimensions this paper also reveals that cycles,trend and random factors are main influencing factors of precipitation and the percent of contribution to precipitation are 76.97％,16.78 and 6.25％ respectively.Cycles act the key role in this non-linear system.
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