中文摘要：

本文以秦皇岛为例,分析GPS可降水量与降水实况的关系。2007年5月~8月期间发生16次降水过程,每次水汽的增加,都对应着一次降水过程和降水峰值的出现;16次降水事件中,GPS可降水量序列峰值超前降水发生时间1h和2h分别各为6次,两者占到总降水次数的75%,也就是说GPS可降水量序列峰值超前降水发生时间约为1~2h;降水出现的时间一般发生在大气可降水量迅速增加之后,在2h或3h的大气可降水量的增幅迅速增加达到5mm后,2h内出现降水占68.75%,3~4h出现降水占18.75%,5~6 h出现降水占6.25%;而大气可降水量迅速增加前2h内出现降水的仅占6.25%,即GPS可降水量迅速增加后4h内出现降水的比率占到87.5%。GPS可降水量可作为降水短期预报的指标之一。

英文摘要：

The article analyzed the relationship between GPS Precipitable Water Vapor（PWV） and rainfall of Qinhuangdao.During the time from May to August in 2007 there were 16 rainfall events.Every rainfall event and rainfall peak value were corresponded the increase of water vapor.The statistical analysis showed that the peak value time of GPS PWV was mostly advanced one or two hours than the rainfall time;and after the rapid increment of PWV the rainfall probability in 4 hours amounts to 87.5 percents.It is concluded that GPS PWV could be considered as one factor of short-term rainfall prediction.