中文摘要：

本文基于引力模型研究了人口迁移的影响因素和机制,重点分析了以火车交通时间为表征的交通基础设施改善对人口迁移的影响。根据1987、1995、2005三次全国1%抽样调查人口迁移数据进行的面板分析,结果发现交通基础设施改善极大地影响了人口迁移,其中火车交通时间提速1%将会促使跨省人口迁移增加约0.8%。这表明,交通基础设施改善能够显著地促进人口或劳动力要素的自由流动和最优配置。

英文摘要：

Based on gravity model,this paper aims at analyzing the factors that have been affecting population migration in China,paying main attention to the impacts of transportation infrastructure improvement represented by train commuting minutes upon population migration.According to the panel data of 1% sample population migration surveys in 1987,1995 and 2005,we find that transportation infrastructure improvement does significantly affect population migration,say 1% downward change in train commuting minutes will positively drive 0.8% upward change in population migration.In sum,transportation infrastructure construction will improve free flow and better allocation of labor or population.