中文摘要：

做好风险评估是制定十三五规划的前提条件,有助于真正守住风险底线。本文借鉴投入产出表的理论原理和风险计算公式,构建了一个经济风险综合评估矩阵和分析框架。该风险评估矩阵考虑了各类风险相互之间的影响和传染,不仅可以对经济整体风险进行综合评估和结构分析,而且可以梳理出各类风险的影响机制和传导路径,是对现有经济风险评估方法的重要补充。同时,本文采用该风险评估框架,对我国十三五时期的经济风险进行了试评估。评估结果表明,十三五时期我国经济总体风险处于中等水平,但面临较大的结构性风险,房地产泡沫和产能过剩风险较大,一旦爆发便存在较大的传染性,“房地产泡沫破裂、产能过剩风险→财政风险、金融风险→经济减速、通货紧缩”的传导路径需要重点关注。

英文摘要：

A good risk assessment is a prerequisite for making the 13th five-year plan and helpful to set a bottom line for risks. By applying the theory of input-output table and the risk calculation formula, we construct a comprehensive economic risk evaluation matrix and analytical framework. The risk evaluation matrix takes into account the influence and transference between different risks. It not only can be used to conduct a comprehensive assessment and structural analysis of the overall economic risk, but also is able to sort out the influence mechanism and transmission path, which is an important complement to the existing economic risk assessments. Using the framework above, we conduct an assessment and evaluation about the economic risk during the 13th five- year plan. The evaluation result shows that during the period of the 13th five year plan, our country＇ s overall economic risk remains at the medium level. However, there still exists a relatively high risk in the economic structure, the real estate bubble as well as overcapacities. Once exploded, the result could be contagious. When the real estate bubble bursts, it would naturally lead to overcapacity of the whole industry, which could further bring about a high risk in the banking industry and even the financial system. This transmission path may finally result in deflation as well as an economic recession and thus requires more attention.