中文摘要：

利用1985—2014年中国农业保险赔付率相关时间序列数据,运用H-P滤波分解模型分析中国农业保险的赔付风险状况,探讨中国农业保险赔付的主要风险来源,并利用格兰杰因果关系检验法判断自然灾害与农业保险赔付风险的关系。研究结果表明,自然灾害风险并不是农业保险赔付风险的主要影响因素,说明在对农业保险赔付风险的研究过程中,存在理论分析结果与实际不符合的现象。认为理论与实际存在偏差可能是由于农业风险的特殊性、道德风险与逆向选择的存在以及养殖业保险风险衡量指标缺失,为此,保险公司可以通过农业保险产品创新、建立农险基金来进一步分散经营风险。

英文摘要：

Using relevant times series data of agricultural insurance compensation ratio from1985 to 2014,applying H-P filter model, the authors analyzed the situation of China＇s agricultural insurance compensation risk,and discussed the main risk source of China＇s agricultural insurance claim, then used Granger causality test to judge the relationship between natural disaster and indemnity risk of China＇s agricultural insurance. The results showed that the natural disaster risk was not a main influencing factor of the agricultural insurance indemnity risk, which indicated that in the research process of agricultural insurance indemnity risk, existence was not in conformity with the phenomenon of theory with practice. The authors thought that the cause of the theory and actual deviation might be the particularity of agricultural risk, the existence of moral hazard and adverse selection, and lack of aquaculture insurance risk measure, therefore, the insurance company could through the agricultural insurance product innovation and setting up the agricultural insurance funds to further divert business risk.