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USE OF A NEW STEERING FLOW METHOD TO PREDICT TROPICAL CYCLONE MOTION

ISSN号：1006-8775
期刊名称：《热带气象学报：英文版》
时间：0
分类：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]
作者机构：[1]National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081 China, [2]Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029 China, [3]Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081 China
相关基金：project of the Ministry of Sciences and Technology of the People＇s Republic of China （GYHY200706020）; projects of National Natural Science Foundation of China （（40975034, 40505009）; project of State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather （2008LASW-A01）

关键词：驾驶流动, 热带气旋轨道的预言, 涡度和分叉, steering flow, prediction of tropical cyclone track, vorticity and divergence

中文摘要：

热带气旋是在更温暖的热带海洋发生并且在它的中心附近很快旋转并且同时沿着包围流动移动的一种强烈天气系统。大规模发行量在决定热带气旋的运动和驾驶流动的效果是在预报热带气旋运动和轨道的最高的优先级起一个主要作用，这通常被认出。这篇文章采用一个新方法导出驾驶流动并且选择一个典型转弯轨道盒子(台风丹，编码了 9914 ) 说明方法的有效性。一般途径是修改涡度， geostropical 涡度和分叉，分别地，在非分叉的流函数， geoptential 和速度潜力调查变化并且计算修改速度域决定驾驶流动。不同于在象风地或 geopoential 高度的加权的一般水准那样的常规使用的另外的方法，这个方法在环境地上有最不不利的效果并且能导出与暴风雨运动适合很好的合适的驾驶流动。与另外的内部、外部的 forcings 结合了，这个方法能在热带气旋轨道的预言有宽申请。

英文摘要：

A tropical cyclone is a kind of violent weather system that takes place in warmer tropical oceans and spins rapidly around its center and at the same time moves along surrounding flows. It is generally recognized that the large-scale circulation plays a major role in determining the movement of tropical cyclones and the effects of steering flows are the highest priority in the forecasting of tropical cyclone motion and track. This article adopts a new method to derive the steering flow and select a typical swerving track case （typhoon Dan, coded 9914） to illustrate the validity of the method. The general approach is to modify the vorticity, geostropical vorticity and divergence, investigate the change in the non-divergent stream function, geoptential and velocity potential, respectively, and compute a modified velocity field to determine the steering flow. Unlike other methods in regular use such as weighted average of wind fields or geopoential height, this method has the least adverse effects on the environmental field and could derive a proper steering flow which fits well with storm motion. Combined with other internal and external forcings, this method could have wide application in the prediction of tropical cyclone track.