本文旨在通过建立、估计和模拟开放条件下的新兴市场经济体动态随机一般均衡模型(DSGE)对我国均衡利率形成机制及货币市场名义利率变动规律进行合理解释。本文的主要贡献在于,根据微观层面上居民与企业的最优选择及购买力平价、利率平价和贸易条件等宏观因素建立了一个代表开放经济体的DSGE模型,继而通过微观和宏观角度解释我国名义利率形成机制及其变动规律。模型数值模拟后的结果显示,我国名义利率变动不仅反映通货膨胀率变动还同时考虑了经济增长率和名义汇率的变动情况,这与我国货币政策维持币值稳定并以此促进经济增长的目标是一致的。
This paper employs and develops the small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to explain the behaviour of interest rate from 2001 to 2011. With the model simulation, we find that the interest rate in China does not only reflect the behaviour of rate of inflation, but also the movement of the GDP growth rate and the exchange rate.