中文摘要：

利用烟台市1986~2003年间的3类环境污染指标和人均GDP数据,基于VAR计量技术,通过变量平稳性和协整检验,格兰杰因果检验,脉冲响应函数和预测方差分解分析,对经济增长与环境污染在时序维度的关系及其动态性进行了实证研究.结果显示：①人均GDP变化是导致污染物排放量变化的格兰杰原因,但污染物排放并不必然导致人均GDP变化,这与研究期间烟台市处于工业化中期阶段的事实吻合;②在烟台市的经济-环境系统内,倒U曲线不是一般规律,选取不同的污染指标呈现出经济-环境间关系的不同表现形式;③经济增长对环境污染的冲击影响的滞后期短且是非渐进的,而环境污染对经济增长产生显著影响的滞后期较长且是渐进的;④经济增长对环境污染指标的预测方差起着重要的作用,而环境污染指标对经济增长的预测方差的贡献度较小.建议要加强政府对环境的监控,建立起有效的产权保护体系与市场交易机制,注重环境保护和经济的可持续发展.

英文摘要：

Based on the unrestricted VAR method,the dynamic interactions between economic growth and environmental pollution was investigated through the variable stationary characterization and eointegration test, granger causality test, impulse response functions and variance decomposition analysis according to the time series data of three kinds of pollution indices in Yantai city from 1986 to 2003. The results were as follows：（1）The GDP per capita granger caused pollution emissions,while it was not true in versa. This was consistent with the fact that Yantai was at a middle industrialization stage during the study period. （2）The ＂Inverted U＂ curve reflecting the economy-environment relationship between indices of environmental quality and levels of GDP per capita was not a general rule, and the differences of selected pollution indices could present different forms in the economy-environment system. （3）The impact of economic growth on environmental quality was short-time and non-asymptotic,whereas the one of the environmental disciplinarian quality on economic growth was long-time and asymptotic. （4）The analysis of variance decomposition indicated that the economic growth was the main variable to explain the forecasting mean square error of the environmental quality indices and it was not true in versa. Finally, it was necessary to strengthen the government＇ s supervision on environment, establish an effective property right-protection market-bargaining system, and pay more attention to environment protection and economic sustainable development.