中文摘要：

西南地区是我国山地灾害最为严重的区域之一,而短时极端降水则是山地灾害成灾演化的关键控制因素.以西南地区1960～2011年110个气象站的逐日降水量资料为基础,通过建立起超门限峰值序列（POT）,结合GIS空间分析技术与线性倾向估计、Mann-Kendall趋势检验、Morlet小波分析等方法,研究了西南地区极端降水事件的时空变化规律.结果发现：20世纪60年代以来,西南地区极端降水频数有增加趋势,速率为0.017/10 a,极端降水量在总降水量中所占的比重不断增加,增幅为0.638％/10a;西南地区极端降水频数的变化在年代际间存在显著的区域增减差异,增加的区域主要呈现出斑块状分布,而减少的区域则呈现出较明显的条带状分布;云南西南部、贵州大部和四川盆地中部3个区域是极端降水频发区,而川滇交界处的元谋—会理一带和四川盆地北部山区则较少发生极端降水;季风期极端降水频数呈现出明显的增加趋势,速率为0.031次/10 a,非季风期极端降水频数则呈现出减少的趋势,速率为-0.014次/10 a;季风期和年极端降水频数均没有明显的突变年份,非季风期存在3个突变点,分别是1969、1983和1994年;季风期与年极端降水存在27、15和7 a时间尺度上的周期性振荡,非季风期的周期性振荡则主要集中在27和12 a时间尺度上.

英文摘要：

The Southwest region is one of the most serious areas of mountain hazards in China, and the short-term extreme precipitation is one of the critical control factors for the evolution of mountain hazards. In this paper, daily precipitation data of 110 meteorological stations in Southwest China from 1960 to 2011 were employed, with the 95th percentile of the annual rainfall as threshold of daily extreme precipitation was established, spatial analysis of GIS technology and linear trend, Mann-Kendall trend test and Morlet wavelet analysis method were used to study the spatial and temporal variation of the extreme precipitation events in Southwest China. The results show as follows. Since the 1960s, extreme precipitation frequency increased with a rate of 0. 017/10 a in Southwest China, and the proportion of extreme precipitation in total precipitation was increasing. Extreme precipitation frequency changed in different decades. The significant increase area showed a patchy distribution, and reduce area in the region showed a pronounced banded distribution. Southwestern of Yunnan, most areas of Guizhou and central of Sichuan Basin are the high incidence of extreme precipitation area, while the border of Yunnan and Sichuan at Yuanmou-Huili and northern mountainous areas of Sichuan Basin are less likely to occur. Extreme precipitation frequency showed a significantl increasing trend with a rate of 0. 031 times/10 a during the summer monsoon, and a decreasing trend with a rate of -- 0. 014 times/10 a during the winter monsoon. There was no obvious abrupt year in summer monsoon and annual extreme precipitation frequency. However, there were three abrupt years in winter monsoon, 1969, 1983 and 1994 respectively; summer monsoon and annual extreme precipitation showed periodic oscillations of 27, 15 and 7 years time scale, while the cyclical oscillation on the winter monsoon is mainly concentrated in the 27 and 12 years time scale.