中文摘要：

对多式联运分运人选择问题分析的基础上，运用决策理论和博弈理论设计了基于两阶段选择的综合评价模型．考虑不完全信息的影响，首先联运经营人通过设置“门槛”选择候选目标群，引入风险态度因子对不完全信息进行处理，分析了风险偏好对分运人选择策略的影响．其次，考虑成本因素设计了暗标拍卖机制以选择最终的合作伙伴．通过分析候选人静态竞标的博弈行为，得出了博弈的贝叶斯纳什均衡，并据此为联运经营人的机制设计提供决策支持．最后对问题进行了总结．

英文摘要：

Based on the analysis of sub-carrier selection problem of multimodal transport, the com- prehensive evaluation model is designed based on two-stage selection by using the decision theory and the game theory. In consideration of the influence of the incomplete information, the inter- modal agents firstly choose candidate group from carriers with qualification to provide transport service for corresponding sections. The risk attitude factors are introduced to process the incom- plete information and to analyze the influence of risk preference on the carrier selection. Then, the sealed-bid auction mechanism is designed to choose the final coorperative partner with considera- tion of cost factors. Bayesian Nash equilibrium of bidding is obtained by analyzing the game be- haviors of the candidate＇s static bidding,which provides the decision support for the intermodal a- gents. Finally, the problems are summarized.