中文摘要：

从由 NCEP 气候预报系统版本的 hindcasts 的每日的输出(CFSv2 ) 2 被分析在北半球的大气的堵住在预报冬理解 CFSv2s 技巧。部门堵住的预言技巧，堵住扇区的事件，和堵住的发作 / 腐烂与欧元大西洋部门的一个焦点被估计(20

英文摘要：

Daily output from the hindcasts by the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 （CFSv2） is analyzed to understand CFSv2＇s skill in forecasting wintertime atmospheric blocking in the Northern Hemisphere. Prediction skills of sector blocking, sector-blocking episodes, and blocking onset/decay are assessed with a focus on the Euro-Atlantic sector （20°W-45°E） and the Pacific sector （160°E 135°W）. Features of associated circulation and climate patterns are also examined. The CFSv2 well captures the observed features of longitudinal distribution of blocking activity, but underestimates blocking frequency and intensity and shows a decreasing trend in blocking frequency with increasing forecast lead time. Within 14-day lead time, the Euro-Atlantic sector blocking receives a higher skill than the Pacific sector blocking. Skillful forecast （taking the hit rate of 50~ as a criterion） can be obtained up to 9 days in the Euro-Atlantic sector, which is slightly longer than that in the Pacific sector （7 days）. The forecast skill of sector-blocking episodes is slightly lower than that of sector blocking in both sectors, and it is slightly higher in the Euro-Atlantic sector than in the Pacific sector. Compared to block onset, the skill for block decay is lower in the Euro-Atlantic sector, slightly higher in the Pacific sector during the early three days but lower after three days in lead time. In both the Euro-Atlantic and the Pacific sectors, a local dipole pattern in 500-hPa geopotential height associated with blocking is well presented in the CFSv2 prediction, but the wave-train like pattern that is far away from the blocking sector can only maintain in the forecast of relative short lead time. The CFSv2 well reproduces the observed characteristics of local temperature and precipitation anomalies associated with blocking.