中文摘要：

讨论化学放热系统的热稳定性和临界条件，用化学反应物无消耗的假设推导化学放热系统热失控（热爆炸）时的动力学参数临界值，得到热失控的判据、临界点火温度和熄火温度。提出用系统安全指数概念来评价放热反应系统发生热爆炸的潜在危险性，分析化学放热系统的平衡域。用硝酸甲酯分解爆炸实例，说明如何利用安全指数对具有热爆炸可能性的系统的潜在危险性进行定量评价，其预测结果与实验结果一致。

英文摘要：

This paper discussed the thermal equilibrium and critical condition in exothermic reaction system, and deduced the values of dynamic parameters such as the judging criterion for thermal runaway, the ignition temperature and extinction temperature in the critical state of thermal runaway when there is no consumption of reaction materials. Then an approach was put forward to evaluate the potential risk of thermal runaway in exothermic reaction system by use of system safety index, and the equilibrium region of ex- othermic reaction systems was analyzed. Finally, paper takes the decomposing explosion of methyl nitrate as an example to illustrate how to use this approach to quantitatively evaluate the potential exothermic reaction system with possibility of thermal explosion.