中文摘要：

采用1991-2010年中国30个省市面板数据（重庆和四川合并），分别通过建立面板和空间面板计量模型对粮食单产影响因素进行检验，结果发现，目前提高粮食单产最有利的技术进步出现了一定程度的停滞，在此条件下加大要素投入，如化肥和劳动力等要素对粮食单产的增加影响甚微。因此下一步的关键是如何加大对良种的研究投入，而不是仅仅通过增加化肥和其它生产要素的投入。

英文摘要：

Employing the econometric model of panel, this paper measures whether grain productivity can increase continuously based on 30 region of China panel data. Empirical analysis proves that technology, which most benefit to improve grain productivity, is continuously going down, meanwhile efficiency of both labor and fertilizer are getting lower. So, the most method of increasing grain productivity is not to misuse fertilizer, but to add the input of research in grain.