中文摘要：

基于实测数据和统计资料建立三峡水库分布式水文模型，对三峡库区水循环现状进行评价，以分析三峡库区范围内降水、径流等水循环要素的空间分布特征，并采用多个全球气候模式的集合平均模拟结果，利用统计降尺度方法将气候模式与分布式水文模型耦合预估了未来气候变化条件下三峡库区水循环要素的变化情况。研究结果表明：在现状条件下，除个别地区外三峡库区年降水量和年径流量的空间分布相对较均匀，且在未来气候变化条件下，相对于历史多年平均值，预计：三峡库区年平均温度将上升1．3℃，年蒸发量将增加2．8％，年降水量和年径流量将分别减少0．8％和8．2％，径流量的减少幅度和蒸发量的增加幅度大于降水量的减少幅度，对库区未来的水资源综合管理提出了更高的要求。

英文摘要：

Based on the measured and statistical data concerned, the distributed hydrological model of the Tree Gorges Reservoir is established for evaluating the status of the water cycle within the area of the reservoir, so as to clarify the spatial distribution characteristics of the water cycle elements of precipitation, runoff, etc. within the area of the reservoir. Furthermore, the climate- mode and the distributed hydrological model are coupled with the statistical downscaling method on the basis of the application of the integrated mean simulated results from several global climate-modes for predicting the variation of the water cycle elements therein under the condition of the future climate change. The study result shows that the spatial distributions of both the annual precipitation and the annual runoff within the area of the Three Gorges Reservoir are relatively even under the status conditions ex- cept for very few regions therein; and then it is predicted that the annual mean temperature in the area is to rise by 1.3 ℃ with the increase of the annual evaporation of 2. 8% , the annual precipitation and annual runoff are to be decreased by 0. 8% and 8.2% respectively; for which both the decrease of the runoff and the increase of the evaporation are larger than the decrease of the precipitation, therefore, higher requirements are put forward on the integrated water resources management for the area of the Three Gorges Reservoir in the days to come.