针对比特币价格剧烈波动和超主权货币构建问题,采用事件研究法考察美国查抄"丝绸之路"、召开比特币听证会和中国发布《关于防范比特币风险的通知》对比特币价格波动的影响。结果显示:中美两国政策信息对比特币价格波动均有实质性影响,无论是发布利好还是利空消息,都会使比特币价格在事件前后剧烈波动。实践表明,受政策信息影响使价格剧烈波动的比特币无法发挥货币价值尺度这一基础职能,其"合法货币地位"难以得到认可,且比特币市场扩张快,持有者以投机为主,政策风险和市场风险极大。在对比特币定性不一致并存在监管漏洞的情况下,各国应提高对虚拟货币的风险防范意识。
In response to Bitcoin price volatility and supranational currency building problems,this paper studies the impacts of three events,including the American Police Raid on "Silk Road"Event,convening Bitcoin hearings by the US Senate,and the publication of "The Notice on Guard Against the Risks of Bitcoin". The result shows that all the policy information from both China and the United States has a substantial impact on Bitcoins' price,and no matter good or bad,it will make Bitcoins' price fluctuate dramatically before and after the event. The practice also shows that Bitcoins can not undertake basic functions of value measurement because of its extremely unstable prices,and it is difficult for its "legitimate currency"to be recognized; besides,Bitcoin market expands fast,and most of the holders hold Bitcoin with the purpose of speculation,so policy risks and market risks tend to be enormous. Therefore,the whole world differs in terms of its legal recognition under the background of lack of regulation,and all countries should enhance the awareness of risk prevention to Bitcoin and other virtual currency.