中文摘要：

运用孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论与相关预测方法，对原已划分的中国境内及周边地震区边界进行了重新厘定，并新增加了10个地震区．本文重点对中国西南地区未来震情进行研判，并给出这些地震区未来震情的四要素预测结果．分析表明：得荣地震区即将有大震发生；中缅边境地震区2、中缅边境地震区3未来将有大震或巨震发生；白玉地震区、开远-蒙自地震区、昌都地震区、云龙地震区、聂荣-巴青-左贡地震区、中缅边境地震区1、下关-楚雄地震区将有强震发生；弥勒-丘北地震区与曲麻莱以北地震区将有中强震发生；由于对鲜水河地震区的边界调整，本文也对其未来震情进行了重新分析．此外，本文也分析了福贡地震区、曲靖地震区、噶尔-革吉地震区、日喀则地震区、盐源地震区、丽江地震区与昭通地震区的地震危险性．本文研究结果可供有关部门参考．

英文摘要：

According to the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system developed by us, the earthquake situation for some seismic zones in the region of southwest China and its border areas is reanalyzed in the present paper. We add ten new seismic zones. The boundaries of some seismic zonesare also redefined. Meanwhile, the prediction results, including the magnitude, place, critical strain, and hypocentral depth of the moderate-strong or strong earthquake, are also presented. The results suggest that an impending large earthquake will occur in Derong seismic zone, a large or great earthquake will occurs in the seismic zones No. 2 and No. 3 in China-Burma border, strong earthquakes will happen in Baiyu, Kaiyuan-Mengzi, Changdu, Yunlong, Nierong-Baqing-Zuogong, No. 1 in China-Burma border and Xiaguan-Chuxiong seismic zones, and moderate earthquakes will occur in Mile-Qiubei and Qumalaiyibei seismic zones. Due to boundary adjustment of Xianshuihe seismic zone, the future earthquake situation is discussed in this paper. Meanwhile, we also analyze seismic hazard situation in Fugong, Qujing, Gaer-Geji, Rikaze, Yanyuan, Lijiang and Zhaotong seismic zones. The analysis results above could be considered by the related department.